Howard Ruff on CNBC Issues Dire Warnings for Years Ahead

In the first quarter of 2009, CNBC had Howard Ruff on as a guest multiple times. I had to do a double-take when I spotted him while channel flipping. Like a pile-up on the Interstate, I just can't help myself from watching NBC's "Must See TV."

It's been more than a generation since I've seen Ruff in the national limelight. He was in the news in my late youth for his book, "How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years" (Warner Books), which vaulted onto best-seller lists when it was released in 1978. He also publishes a newsletter, The Ruff Times. Ruff went to school for music education and his current publicist tells me that he worked as a singer and actor for 25 years before becoming a financial pundit. (I suppose those stage skills come in handy when appearing in the media.)

I remember the 1970s and early 1980s well. My father lost his job during the severe 1973-1974 recession when I was in middle school. Bad news was all around the country and world at that time. Vice President Agnew and then President Nixon resigned in disgrace so we ended up with a President (Gerald Ford) who wasn't even voted into office. Inflation and interest rates were rising and conflict abounded in the Middle East. The Arab Oil Embargo caused gas lines at stations and high energy prices.

Gloom was everywhere and Howard Ruff was there to save everyone from the rough times. Ruff was never shy about expressing his investing opinions and his book, newsletter and media appearances were filled with dire warnings. Consider these predictions and recommendations from his 1978 book:

* The dollar will collapse and there will be an "international monetary holocaust" that will take down all paper currencies

* Recommended that everyone stock a year's worth of food to provide for when the economy collapses and supermarkets close

* Recommended keeping plenty of gold and silver coins at home to pay for things for when paper currency became worthless

* Exploding inflation

* Skyrocketing gold and precious metals prices

* Failure and bankruptcy of private and government pensions including Social Security.

* Predicted the bankruptcy of the United States

* An economic depression

* Recommended dumping stocks

None of these things even came close to happening. So, not only was Ruff wrong, he was hugely wrong and anyone who followed his advice decimated his investment portfolio. It's ironic that gold today is trading just under $900 per ounce, almost exactly the same price it hit back in 1980 - nearly three decades ago when Ruff was saying to shun stocks and buy gold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average back in 1980 was trading around 800 versus around 8,000 today (and remember this index doesn't account for all the dividends an investor earned).

It's a tad ironic to look back at Ruff's 1978 statement made in his book in which he said, "...much of the American wealth is an illusion which is being secretly gnawed away and much of it will be completely wiped out in the near future." His prediction, I suppose, came true for anyone who followed his investing advice.

As for Ruff's newsletter, its track record is equally dismal according to the Hulbert Financial Digest which has tracked financial newsletter investment recommendations for decades (and Ruff's newsletter since 1980). Over that period, the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index has produced returns totaling 1372 percent (9.8 percent annualized) whereas Ruff's portfolios have returned just 226 percent (4.2 percent annualized). Ruff's investment picks have been so bad over the years that an investor solely holding Treasury-bills would have done better (5.6 percent annualized) and with a lot less risk than those following his recommendations.

So, I was simply stunned that CNBC would have such a boob on the air. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that CNBC doesn't research prognosticators' track records before having them on air. They've had plenty of charlatans and dimwits on over the years. But, Ruff's appearance surprised me until I reflected upon it further and then it made sense.

Early this year when the stock market was still getting hammered, gold and other precious metals' companies were advertising big time on CNBC. Ruff is long known as a gold tout and thus an advertising friendly guest to have on air. In such a climate, don't expect to find CNBC having guests on telling viewers the truth regarding what a crummy long-term investment gold has been and to stay away from their advertisers. Besides there's no room on their schedule with all of Peter Schiff's appearances.

Apparently Ruff has been making the media rounds to lay the groundwork for touting the re-issuance of his 1978 book now with the title "How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years in the 21st Century" which I was sent a press release for by his publicist this week.

This isn't the first time that Ruff has dusted the cobwebs off of his tired ideas and republished them with a slightly new package. In April, 1999, he had published "How to Prosper During the Hard Times Ahead: A Crash Course for the American Family in the Troubled New Millennium" (Regnery). In it, he predicted nearly all the same apocalyptic events that he did a generation earlier plus havoc from Y2K issues, which, as we know, never materialized.