Dr. Phil Declares a Financial 9-1-1

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On a recent Dr. Phil show, called "Financial 911," he had several financial experts who made some pretty dire predictions. I reviewed that episode in its entirety and found it hyped and disappointing. Among the predictions and comments made on this show (after which of each are my comments):

* "Dramatic layoffs and double-digit unemployment." While most economists expect some additional layoffs in the coming months, it's irresponsible and unfounded to say there will be dramatic layoffs and 10+ percent unemployment (the current rate is 6.1 percent). The only time since the Great Depression that unemployment got that high was during a very brief period in the early 1980s. Could it happen again? Yes, but the odds are heavily against it happening.

* Huge increases in home foreclosures which are only now "just beginning." Home foreclosures are actually up substantially and are beginning to show signs of leveling off.

* "I question whether retirement as a concept is even going to exist in ten years." This sure seems like hyperbole to me! We've gotten through challenging times before and we will again. Most retired folks don't rely on short-term stock market gains to finance their retirement.

* Pension plans are in "big trouble" and plans are going to come up short due to the poor stock market. Pension plans are well diversified (including in bonds and other investment vehicles) and have weathered challenging stock markets before. A poor return for one year or even several years won't upset diversified pension plans managed for the long-term.

* "We've got a hurricane here and everyone's got a hole in the roof." For sure, some folks are weathering tough times but many people are not.

* It will be "nearly impossible" to get a mortgage unless you're very wealthy and have excellent credit. This is utter nonsense. While it's harder to get a mortgage, especially at the lowest interest rates, than it was a couple of years ago, you don't have to be wealthy to qualify for a home mortgage. I know many folks benefiting from the current low interest rates by refinancing. And you don't have to be "very wealthy" to be able to get a mortgage or other bank loan today.

* Everyone has to "stop spending now." Making a blanket statement like this without qualifications is absurd. If you lack an adequate emergency reserve (3-6 months' worth of living expenses) and are burdened with consumer debt, you should examine your spending and identify ways to reduce your spending.

As one of America's most widely followed popular psychologists, Dr. Phil reaches millions of people and can influence how they think about important issues. Unfortunately, I found the financial advice on his "Financial 911" program highly disappointing.



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